Hurricanes and Kyoto

I am writing this from the lounge in Miami airport. I am on my way to Mexico City and then San Francisco for meetings on climate change. The current hurricane activity - with Gustav approaching New Orleans, poignantly exactly 3 years on from devastating hurricane Katrina, and Hanna developing into a strong hurricane north-east of Cuba - brings my work into sharp focus. Gustav is currently directly in our flight path from Miami to Mexico City and I am intrigued as to whether we will fly directly over it or, more likely, around it. (You can track the hurricanes' progress here)

It is commonly known that the number of hurricanes fluctuates on a natural cycle. This year is predicted to produce an above average number - 15 versus the long-term average of 12.4. The intensity of these hurricanes is determined by the sea surface temperature - hurricanes gain their energy from warmth. The warmer the surface temperature, the more intense the hurricane. So global warming, with its resulting higher sea surface temperatures, is predicted to increase the INTENSITY of hurricanes. It is less clear that it will cause MORE hurricanes.

My destination today - Mexico - is particularly concerned. It is in the flight path of many of the hurricanes that originate in the north atlantic. It is vulnerable to sea level rise and hurricane-related sea surges. So it wants to fight global warming.

Mexico is also in a unique position in the international negotiations on a post-2012 agreement. Under the Kyoto Protocol it was classified as a developing country and so, under the terms of the agreement, was not mandated to take on binding emissions reduction targets. However, it has since joined the OECD (an organisation of 'developed' countries) and will be expected to take on a binding target for the post-2012 period along with the rest of the developed world. At the same time, Mexico is a member of the so-called "+5" group of major emerging economies, along with Brazil, China, India and South Africa. This places Mexico in a unique position as a bridge between developed and developing countries.

My meetings over the next 2 days are centred on the preparations for a forum of legislators from the Americas, to take place in Mexico City in November. We very much hope to forge a ground-breaking compact between legislators from the developed (US, Canada and Mexico) and developing economies (Brazil, Argentina and the rest of Latin America) that calls for a long-term goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 50 per cent from 1990 levels (the baseline under Kyoto) by 2050. To get there, the agreement should urge developed economies to take on an aggregate binding emission reduction targets of between 25 and 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. In return, the major developing economies should take steps to peak their emissions by 2020 with a view to taking on binding commitments thereafter, subject to industrialised countries meeting their target.

If we are successful, this would represent the first time that politicians from across the political spectrum, from both developed and developing countries, will have agreed 'in principle' on a long-term goal and an equitable way of achieving it.

Let's hope the hurricanes in the Gulf focus the minds...!